Danske Bank doesn't expect a rally from a ruble, but believes in strengthening it
The Russian currency does not leave an attempt to test the strength of the June highs near 68 rubles per dollar, the gust below which promises to give a fresh impetus to its strengthening, but Danske Bank cautiously speaks about the prospects for further growth. The bank's strategists point out that from the point of view of value models, the ruble exchange rate can no longer be called undervalued, and the possibility of its further strengthening now depends mainly on the ability of oil to continue to grow and weaken the position of the dollar amid growing appetite for risk.
Danske notes that signs of a new wave of diseases are nervous for investors, but the bank believes that the authorities will no longer go for as radical quarantine measures as at the beginning of the pandemic, and the attention of market participants will remain focused on the efforts of regulators and governments to overcome the crisis. Support for the ruble is likely to continue from the oil market, although supply elasticity suggests limited potential for a rally.
Danske Bank's strategists believe that the rouble may continue to grow if the atmosphere in the market remains unchanged, but expect it to be gradual. The bank keeps the USDRUB forecast at 69 for 1 month, at 68 for 3 months. The 12-month forecast was lowered from 70 to 66 roubles.