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George Ma
May 27 11:01

Fitch Ratings has changed its forecasts for currencies, oil prices and GDP growth in 2020-2021

The agency has worsened most of the May forecasts compared to April.
The international rating agency Fitch Ratings published on Tuesday, May 26, "Global Economic Outlook" (GEO). According to the document, Fitch expects the average Brent price to be US$35 per barrel for the current year and US$45 per barrel for 2021, as in the April release. This is 45% and 29.8% respectively below the 2019 average.
Updated currency forecast
The euro/dollar exchange rate will reach 1.0870 by the end of the year. It will remain close to this level for the next 2 years.
The dollar/yen exchange rate will make 107.00 by the end of 2020, which corresponds to the current quotes in this currency pair.
The british pound/dollar exchange rate will fall to 1.2000 by the end of the year.
The dollar/yuan will reach 7,1000 at the end of this year and will rise to 7,2000 in another 12 months.
Economic growth forecast
World GDP in 2020 will fall by 4.6% yoy. A month ago, the agency predicted a 3.9% yoy decline.
World GDP in 2021 will increase by 5.1% yoy due to low base in 2020.
Eurozone GDP will decline by 8.2% in 2020. In April, Fitch projected a 7% yoy decline in economic growth in the region.
Spain's GDP will decrease by 9.6% (compared to -7.5% in GEO at the end of April).
Italy's GDP will drop by 9.5% (compared to -8.0% at GEO at the end of April)
France's GDP will decrease by 9.0% (compared to -7.0% in GEO at the end of April)
Since the end of April, GDP growth projections for 2020 for China, the USA and Japan remained unchanged at 0.7%, -5.6% and -5.0%, respectively.