Ross Ulbricht: bitcoin can drop to $1,200 before rising again
While being in a prison, Darknet market Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht is closely monitoring developments on the cryptocoin market, including changes in bitcoin value. According to him, it is possible that the top cryptocurrency might suffer a sharp fall.
According to Ross Ulbricht, at the moment bitcoin is at the last stage of the first bear market cycle. Wave 2 is made of of three primary wave levels, where level C is the biggest.
How deep the drawdown can be during Wave 2 is difficult to predict, but Ulbricht notes that during the previous two bear markets, the falls was 86% and 94%. This suggests that investors may expect further blows, a comparable drop could bring bitcoin down to US$1200.
How long the current bear market will last is difficult to estimate, but historical data suggests that it could end in June this year, Ulbricht writes.
According to Ulbricht, the bearish scenario could be avoided if Bitcoin returns to the highs of 2019 (US$14,000), but such a development seems extremely unlikely to him at the moment.
Ulbricht also recalls his own December forecast when he suggested that the bitcoin might take off at US$100,000 in 2020, but falling below the start of Wave 2 (US$4,200) in March hardly makes such a scenario viable. However, if there is a pullback to these levels again, Ulbricht will see it as a great opportunity to buy, as he is convinced that Wave III will bring extremely positive results.